Many experts are speculating that it is not if the People’s Republic of China will invade Taiwan, but when. Unless one is privy to Xi Jinping’s conversations with members of the Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo’s Standing Committee, one cannot state with any certainty that the PRC will invade Taiwan. Rhetoric by political leaders is often directed at an internal audience and is not accurate on foreign policy actions.
The overriding goal and motivation of the CCP and its leader is to keep Xi Jinping in power. Any action that puts that goal in jeopardy is not tolerated. The CCP uses every lever it has available — print/electronic/social media, education, police, birth control, limits on personal and economic freedom — to control its population. Dissent against the CCP’s policies is not tolerated and is dealt with harshly.
The Chinese Politburo could recommend an invasion of Taiwan to unite the two countries because the Ministry of State Security does not believe the PRC can gain control of the Taiwanese government by either the ballot box or a coup.
Increased Internal Unrest
Despite its efforts to portray the Chinese people as being 100% in support of the Communist government, widespread unrest is simmering beneath the surface. In early 1990, the CCP admitted there were 8,700 “mass protests.” By 2010, Sun Liping, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Scientists, estimated the number had grown to 190,000.
In 2021, we saw protests in Hong Kong and, in 2022, opposition to the PRC’s policies to prevent the spread of Covid-19 forced the CCP to impose martial law in three provinces and confine its citizens to their apartments. An invasion could be the catalyst for opponents of the regime to act.
Collapse of the Economy
The PRC’s economy is heavily dependent on exports: 17.1% to the U.S.; 5% to Japan; 4.5% to South Korea; and 4.2% to Vietnam. An invasion of Taiwan would cost the PRC 2% of its foreign currency earnings through exports when sales to Taiwan end.
One would hope that the PRC’s other top 10 export customers, Australia, Germany, India, the Netherlands, and the U.K., would also curtail imports of Chinese manufactured goods. That leaves Russia as the PRC’s only remaining large customer. Unlike Russia, which can export oil and gas to generate hard currency for nations not abiding by U.N. sanctions, the PRC does not have that option. Much of what is made in the PRC can be or is being made elsewhere.
The trickle-down from lost exports will be felt by the hundreds of thousands of entrepreneurs in the PRC’s Special Economic Zones. Once the war begins, their revenue will drop significantly. Sanctions will affect business owners’ ability to find new customers or worse, deny them access to the money they have salted away in banks outside the PRC.
The loss of exports will lead to a rise in unemployment and the PRC’s citizens will be forced to use their savings to buy food. In short, an invasion will cause economic hardship.
If the West imposes sanctions like those placed on Russia, the PRC will be cut off from Western sources of money. Governments will have the option of seizing assets in their countries. PRC’s government and its citizens will be cut off from the world’s financial system.
The PRC imports billions of dollars in machinery, high-technology equipment, and raw materials. The PRC is the second largest consumer of oil in the world, and its internal production of crude is dropping.
At the end of 2022, the PRC was running a daily deficit of 7.88 billion barrels of oil. While its recent arrangement with Russia to pipe gas and oil in from Siberia will help, it will only be a fraction of the deficit. The rest comes by tankers from the Middle East, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Tankers are easy to interdict.
Difficult Amphibious Operation
The People’s Liberation Army has not fought a war since it invaded Vietnam in 1979 and has never conducted an amphibious operation on the size and scale needed to invade Taiwan. Amphibious invasions require control of the air; on and below the surface of the ocean; and the capability to put enough men and material on land to secure a beachhead. Assuming a beachhead is established, sustaining it so the PLA can take over the island over 120 miles of open water will be a major challenge for the PLA’s Navy. Surely, the Taiwanese will stoutly defend their island.
What Should the Free World Do?
To make the price of invading Taiwan unacceptable, we should train and equip the Taiwanese to defend themselves. The training the Ukrainians received during the Trump administration from the U.S. and our NATO allies paid dividends in the early stages of the war and has given Ukraine the upper hand.
If the Taiwanese continue to strengthen its military with modern Western weapons, it should give the PRC pause and may increase the price to more than the PRC wants to pay. The China lobby in Congress has prevented, or at least made difficult, providing modern weapons to the Taiwanese.
The benefits from a change in U.S. policy will make it harder for the PRC to contemplate an invasion. If it does, the added capabilities will give the Taiwanese the time needed to survive.